NYC Real Estate Current Data-Based Snapshot
Guest blog post by Noah Rosenblatt of UrbanDigs.com
Today feels very different when looking back to the NYC real estate market from 2013 to 2015 when there was a continued progressive reflation following a severe housing crash in 2008. Those three years were ‘peak times’ for sellers, where market dynamics included super low inventory, bidding wars, and ever rising price trends. Buyers across all price points had to deal with a lack of supply options, intense competition and concessions in order to beat out competition and seal deals.
Today sellers no longer have the leverage they enjoyed during the peak years. The market dynamics are working in the buyers favor while sellers scramble to adapt. The two critical questions should be: how long will buyers enjoy this combination of favorable market forces and will there be another cycle down?
The 2nd question is a bit easier to answer. Nobody can predict what the markets will do in 6, 12 or even 24 months from now. There are too many external factors that can potentially impact NYC markets.
A necessary way to evaluate the market right now is to only analyze the very recent and current real-time market data. We are now seeing signs of life in the sub-market that started it all, the higher-end price points could be the moment for buyers to act as prices in the very high-end are significantly down from their peak.
More options. More negotiability. Discounts from peak. It’s a recipe buyers should embrace, especially in prime global city markets like Manhattan.
It’s enough to get this data geek bullish given where we have come from and where we are now.
Here are some key takeaways when looking at today’s market vs the peak period in 2015.
1. More Supply Options
2. More Negotiability
3. Discount from Peak*
* We must note that sales price trends lag the market by about 6-8 months. When discussing the peak period in mid-2015, those sales will show in the data approximately 6-8 months after contract execution due to delays in closing and public record filings.
Read more in our Fall 2018 Newsletter!