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Fall 2021 Newsletter

Fall 2021 Newsletter

Last year was an unprecedented year in nearly every aspect. New York City endured extraordinary challenges. Leading up to the pandemic, the Manhattan residential real estate market had been showing signs of weakness since 2018. Signs of a stabilizing market appeared in the First Quarter of 2020 but the optimism was short-lived. When the city shutdown occurred in March, the stock market dropped sharply, nonessential businesses closed, New York City became an epicenter of the virus, and real estate sales activity dropped precipitously. Many left the city for several months, if not for good, and for the first time the suburban housing market far outpaced the city in sales volume and rising prices.

The difference between then and now is quite stark as the Manhattan sales market has had its best spring season in terms of sales volume than in more than 5 years! New York City has time and again proven its resiliency by overcoming great challenges.  

This newsletter will provide an overview of the first half of 2021 and what we might expect to happen as we enter the fall months. The fall market typically begins slowly as people settle in after summer vacations. Children return to school and there are many holidays in September and October which contributes to the slow start. But this year could be different as traditional seasonality has been upended over the past year-and-a-half and demand has been so strong. The only possible hitch may be related to the Delta or other variant and its potential impact on city life.

For a comprehensive analysis of the first half of 2021 and how it has compared to pre-pandemic levels and what we might expect this fall, download our Fall Newsletter.

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Upper West Side Townhouse Report

Upper West Side Townhouse Report

2021 has been a banner year for Upper West Side Townhouse sales and it is only August! The strong volume of townhouse sales on the Upper West Side is in keeping with the stronger market overall but also indicates that buyers feel that townhouses are now a good value and having a lot of space plus outdoor area is again very desirable. As more buyers re-entered the market the first half of the year, the combination of the lower prices, low interest rates and increased consumer confidence all came into play. As of now, there has been over 3x the number of UWS contracts this year than the same period in 2020, and nearly 5x the number of contracts during the same period in 2019. In our just released Upper West Side Townhouse Reportwe researched and analyzed the townhouse market going back through 2020 and because of the artificially low sales volume in 2020 due to the pandemic, we even went back to 2019 to fully understand the market today. As a townhouse buyer or seller this newsletter will be incredibly helpful to you, even if your house is not on the Upper West Side. You will find a detailed analysis of the Manhattan townhouse market overall to date this year as well as last year and a granular snapshot of the Upper West Side.

Selling a townhouse in Manhattan is a highly sophisticated process and takes experienced brokers with an excellent track record of successful sales. As townhouse sales specialists we know what it takes to market these properties effectively, achieve high prices and handle complex deals. We would be happy to answer any questions you have about the townhouse market in Manhattan.

Download the UWS Townhouse Report here.

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Why it’s a Great Time to Buy in NYC

Why it’s a Great Time to Buy in NYC

All the Stars are Aligned……Why Now is a Great Time to Buy in NYC
The real estate market in Manhattan over the past few years has been more favorable to buyers especially during the past pandemic year. Since January however, there has been a steady stream of good news proving New York City’s resiliency and causing many to feel that sales prices will begin to rise and could shift the leverage back to sellers. The just-released Second Quarter numbers further strengthened the overall positive reports. Manhattan had the best spring season for closed sales in six years and the strongest second quarter for contract activity since 2007. The number of Manhattan signed contracts has been climbing since last September and rose nearly sevenfold versus last spring’s “pause” from 700 to almost 5,000 contracts. As many buyers remain focused on the desire for more space, the high-end of the market performed well with increases in the sales of larger homes (3 bedrooms or more). Due to improved sales in this category, pricing statistics climbed versus last quarter, giving the $5M+ market a nice boost. But even with incredibly strong sales, inventory remains stubbornly high. As of mid-June, 7,939 units were actively listed in Manhattan, 31% more than last year, although inventory then was artificially low due to pandemic-related showing restrictions. Inventory did moderate, albeit slightly, versus 1Q 2021—the first time since 2013 that inventory fell between the first and second quarter of the year.

The combination of pent-up demand, historically low interest rates, increased negotiability and consumer confidence have boosted sales over the first half of the year. The optimism has only grown since more and more New Yorkers have been vaccinated and the city has re-opened. Those with kids know for certain that schools will be open in the fall, which is what everyone has waited for over the past year. That said, the most significant factor in the market rebound has been lower prices, but the high level of activity in the Second Quarter indicates buyers understand that window is closing.

Window of Opportunity
By all accounts, we do expect a strong fall market. The economy is improving and will likely continue to improve. While it is nearly impossible to time the real estate market, we feel there is a rare window of opportunity right now to purchase property in NYC. Inventory is still high, offering buyers leverage on homes, especially those that are un-renovated or specifically renovated that may not appeal to all buyers. Interest rates are still low and will likely rise moderately before the end of the year. There is still negotiability and reduced or non-peak prices on many homes. Not every segment of the market is active with properly priced properties flying off the shelf. There are certain locations not considered ‘prime’ or apartment categories that have continued to suffer losses without much of a recovery. New development concessions have begun to wane and will likely be eliminated as we enter the fall market. Lastly, with buyers returning from their summer away, especially in the high-end, and foreign buyers re-entering the market, competition could increase as the year progresses.

Now more than ever it is important to have an excellent, experienced broker representing you in your purchase. If you would like to discuss your goals and options this summer, we would be happy to help. Click here to contact us.

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Downtown Manhattan Real Estate Review

Downtown Manhattan Real Estate Review

Downtown sales accounted for 31% of sales in the first quarter representing the largest market share in Manhattan and the trend continued into April as 542 of the 1,647 contracts signed across Manhattan during the month were downtown. April not only was a banner month, the nearly 2,000 contracts signed made in the strongest April on record!

In addition, Downtown closings in the first quarter rose 7% year-over-year and resale transactions increased more than 10% year-over-year. Listed inventory reached 2,187 units and for the first time in over five years, over half of all active listings Downtown were under $2M. The average days on the market rose in the first quarter to 140 days but was tied for the lowest in Manhattan with the Upper West Side.

In our new exclusive Downtown Newsletter, we discuss the entire market downtown and also we take a deep dive into 3 different areas with comprehensive sales data since the start of 2021 which includes 1) Greenwich Village and the West Village, 2) Tribeca and Soho, and 3) the Flatiron/Nomad market. We also provide a detailed analysis of the entire Manhattan real estate market with potential aspects that can negatively or positively impact the residential market in the months ahead. As always, we provide advice for both sellers and buyers right now.

Download the full newsletter here.

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Manhattan Market Update January 2021

Manhattan Market Update January 2021

January was an important month for sales and a good measure for where we might go from here. We wanted to provide you with an expanded market snapshot that delves deeper into the Manhattan condo and co-op sales in January.

This snapshot will review:
  • Contracts Signed: Number of condo and co-op contracts reported signed during the month
  • Active Listings: Number of active listings inventory as of the last day of the report month
  • Days on Market: Average days on market for the month plus a 3-month moving average
  • Average PPSF: Average price per square foot of contracts signed during the month
  • Negotiability Factor: Average percent discount off last asking prices for the report month
  • Contracts Signed by Price Range: Condo and co-op contracts reported signed by price bracket
  • Contracts Signed by Submarket: Condo and co-op contracts reported by submarket

Each and every submarket (neighborhood, size, price point and property type) reacts differently and we are happy to answer any questions you may have about your properties particular market.

Download report

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September 2020 Manhattan $5M+ Report

September 2020 Manhattan $5M+ Report

September 2020: The Luxury Market’s Rebound Continues

This September, $5M+ sales, active listings, and average price per square foot all increased compared to last month and last year.  

  • Sales increased. September sales rose about 70% versus last year and last month to a seven-month high of 39 deals. While the $5M+ market is regaining strength, the annual increase was exaggerated by a weak September 2019 following the July 2019 tax hike.
  • The surge in active listings continued. Active listings over $5M increased by double-digits for the eighth consecutive month and reached their highest September total in at least ten years.
  • Days on market, higher than last year, fell versus last month. This was the second month in a row that a monthly improvement in sales corresponded with a monthly decline in days on market.
  • Pricing driven higher by penthouse sales. At $2,944, average price per square foot was 4% higher than September 2019 and 21% higher than August. Pricing was driven higher by an increase in contracts signed on penthouses featuring large outdoor spaces.

Read the full report here.

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August 2020 Manhattan $5M+ Report

August 2020 Manhattan $5M+ Report

August 2020: Manhattan’s Luxury Market Holds Steady

This August, $5M+ sales were nearly level with last month, active listings rose quickly, and pricing cooled as result of fewer very high-price deals.

  • Sales, while lower than last year, were nearly level with July. August saw 23 sales over $5M, a 51% annual decline. The market is still rebounding from very low levels earlier this year, so the annual decline is unsurprising. More importantly, sales fell by just one from July, suggesting the $5M+ market has stabilized for now.
  • Active listings continued to climb. As seen last month, active listings, which are usually lowest in August, instead increased by 7% from last month and 11% from last August to 1,001 listings.
  • Days on market remains high, but was lower than last month. With buyers returning, days on market rose by its slowest pace in six months, and decreased by 50 days on average versus July. Seven apartments signed in under 90 days, on par with last year.
  • Prices moderated versus last year. At $2,431, average price per square foot fell amid a drop in the share of sales in prime locations and for units on high-floors with quality water, park or city views.

Click here to view the report.

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Micro Lens on the Summer Market – 7th Edition

Micro Lens on the Summer Market – 7th Edition

While the Upper West Side had 7 fewer contacts signed under $4M than the previous week, the Upper East Side had 5 more contracts signed. These last few weeks of summer will be likely less active simply because of the time of the year, however since there is more clarity around schools, we could be pleasantly surprised. Markets typically improve with varying degrees of certainty. There were 3 contracts signed OVER $4M on the Upper East & West Sides, not unexpected for this time of year. 941 Park-2/3C asking $6.95M, 200 WEA-12G asking $4.495M & 25 CPW-16I asking $4.37M. Keep an eye out for our fall market preview in the first weeks of September as we analyze market conditions & get closer to more accurate pricing w/ late summer – early fall closings. 

We are happy to give you more detailed information on this data. Please reach out to Deanna at DEK@corcoran.com

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Move Safe Certified with HomeLight

Move Safe™ Certified

We’re proud to share that we’re Move Safe Certified with HomeLight! Our team is using the best tools and practices including meeting with clients virtually, practicing safety protocol for showings, and using an e-sign platform for the transfer and signature of documents. We’re here to help buyers and sellers navigate through these challenging times.

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Micro Lens on the Summer Market – 6th Edition

Micro Lens on the Summer Market – 6th Edition

There were 47 contracts signed under $4M on the Upper East & West Sides last week over 40 the previous week. Notably, there were 8 contracts signed over $2M from zero the previous week; 7 of which were on the UWS. An increase week over week in August is a good sign as new inventory will come on in September. Last week, Governor Cuomo announced that all school districts in NY State can open based on the data but there will be things that do not make it a typical fall school season, such as remote vs in-school learning or a hybrid of the two. That being said, certainty will trigger sales as many people were paralyzed to act with an uncertain future.

The luxury market was not as active uptown with only one contract signed at 390 West End Avenue, 11G (The Apthorp) asking $6.5M. The other 5 contracts over $4M signed in the city were all downtown.

We are happy to give you more detailed information on this data. Please reach out to Deanna at DEK@corcoran.com

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